India’s weather office has warned that a developing storm over the Bay of Bengal will strengthen into a very severe cyclonic storm and reach the Andhra Pradesh coast on October 28, putting coastal districts in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha on high alert for heavy rain and strong winds.
The system is the first cyclone to form in the Bay of Bengal in 2026. Once it intensifies into a cyclonic storm, it will officially be named Cyclone Arnab, a name proposed by Bangladesh. As of Sunday morning it remained a depression, sitting 470 kilometres north northwest of Sri Vijay Puram in the Andaman Islands, 860 kilometres east southeast of Visakhapatnam, and 950 kilometres east southeast of Kakinada.
The forecast track
The India Meteorological Department expects the depression to become a deep depression by Sunday, a cyclonic storm by the morning of October 26, and a severe cyclonic storm on October 27. It is then likely to move northwest and strengthen further into a very severe cyclonic storm, reaching the west central Bay of Bengal near the Andhra Pradesh coast around the morning of October 28.
Landfall is forecast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam on the north Andhra Pradesh coast, with sustained winds of 115 to 125 kilometres per hour, gusting to 140. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha are forecast to receive very heavy rainfall through October 29, and the sea is expected to become very rough.
Manorama Mohanty, director of the meteorological centre in Bhubaneswar, said that although the storm will make landfall in Andhra Pradesh, it will trigger severe weather, extremely heavy rainfall and gusty winds across Odisha, particularly in the southern regions. Odisha has cancelled leave for all disaster personnel and mobilised 225 rescue teams on high alert across vulnerable districts.
Warnings already in force
As the Indian Express reported, the weather department has issued heavy to very heavy rainfall warnings for the Andaman Islands through October 27, and red warnings for five Odisha districts for October 28: Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Gajapati and Ganjam.
Fishermen have been advised to stay away from vulnerable sea areas on October 28 and 29, and schools have closed in five districts. The storm’s formation fits conditions typical of an El Nino year, when abnormal warming in the equatorial Pacific tends to push northern hemisphere cyclones to lower latitudes and towards the Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts.
Forecasts can still shift, and the exact landfall point may move as the system strengthens. What is already clear is the scale of preparation: two states on alert, hundreds of rescue teams standing by, and a coastline bracing for three days of rain before the storm even arrives. Residents in low lying areas should follow official advisories and avoid travel to the coast until the system passes.
