Oil Hits One-Month High as Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia Stoke Supply Fears
Oil prices climbed to their highest in nearly a month on Monday as a weekend of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and strikes on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz put Middle East supply risks back at the centre of the market. Brent crude settled at $106.65 a barrel, up 1.84 per cent, its highest since mid-September, while US West Texas Intermediate closed at $93.74, up 2.06 per cent — a third straight daily gain for both benchmarks.
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi fighters claimed a Saturday missile strike on Riyadh’s international airport that killed more than a dozen people and wounded hundreds, according to reports, with further attacks reported on Sunday and Monday. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree warned airlines, workers and travellers to avoid Saudi airports and airspace. Separately, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported a tanker struck by a drone near Oman’s Sohar anchorage and another damaged by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz.
A fragile supply recovery at risk
The violence threatens to undo a tentative recovery in Gulf energy exports. Crude and condensate shipments had recovered to 91 per cent of prewar levels in September, but refined-product exports languished at just 60 per cent — and tankers bound for Fujairah stopped or reversed course on Monday, according to market reports. OPEC ministers said shipping and insurance costs had surged to unprecedented levels, exceeding one-third of the commodity’s value.
Goldman Sachs raised its year-end Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $85, estimating that geopolitical risk is adding just over $20 a barrel to prices. “The Houthi rebels’ new attacks on Saudi Arabia added support for oil price increases,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, commodities analyst at SEB. The Red Sea corridor’s fragility has been underlined repeatedly, including the deadly Djibouti–Yemen boat disaster that exposed how little margin the region’s waterways have left.
Washington weighs its response
The market is looking past two would-be stabilisers. President Trump is reportedly considering joining Saudi retaliation against the Houthis in Yemen — a step the Houthis warned would draw a response — while an IEA-led strategic petroleum reserve release is expected to be gradual and modest. Analyst Jim Ritterbusch estimated the release volume over the next month was unlikely to exert significant downward pressure on prices.
Trump’s separate deal to bring Russian diesel into global markets has done little to calm traders, not least because lawmakers in both parties say it may violate US law. With regional security pacts tightening across Asia and OPEC slashing its 2026 demand-growth forecast, the oil market’s message is blunt: the risk premium is here to stay until the shooting stops.
