Brazil’s presidential runoff tightened further on Thursday after the third-place finisher in Sunday’s first round endorsed Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, giving the right-wing challenger fresh momentum ahead of his October 25 showdown with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Bolsonaro said he had secured the backing of author and psychiatrist Augusto Cury, who ran under the slogan “Centered on what matters” and took 2.89 percent of valid votes in the first round. The endorsement was announced in a video shared on social media, following local media reports that Cury had decided to support the senator rather than stay neutral in the runoff.
Cury was not the only also-ran whose choice mattered this week. Ronaldo Caiado, another of the top five finishers, endorsed Bolsonaro earlier in the week, while Renan Santos said he would not endorse either candidate. In a runoff expected to be decided by a narrow margin, the loyalties of even small first-round voter blocs can shape advertising, turnout operations and the tone of the final two weeks.
The first round itself rewrote expectations. Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead of the incumbent with about 47.03 percent of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16 percent, according to results reported after nearly all ballots were counted. Most private surveys published before the vote had Lula leading by roughly three points, and the miss has become part of the campaign argument, with Bolsonaro’s camp saying the polls again understated its support.
Lula, seeking another term, told supporters in Sao Paulo on election night that he had expected to win outright in the first round. He promised a new campaign from the following day, built around his government’s record. His challenge is to reassemble the broad anti-Bolsonaro coalition that carried him back to power in 2022 while answering voter anger over the cost of living, public finances and insecurity, the issues that dominated the first round.
For Bolsonaro, the runoff math starts from strength but not safety. A first-round lead just under the 50 percent threshold needed to win outright means he must still add voters, and endorsements from centrist first-round candidates are aimed squarely at Brazilians who rejected both camps. His campaign is expected to keep the focus on economic frustration and public security, while Lula’s side portrays the senator as an extension of his father’s polarising presidency.
The stakes extend beyond Brasilia. A Bolsonaro victory would extend a run of wins by right-wing candidates aligned with United States President Donald Trump across Latin America, while a Lula win would preserve an often tense relationship with Washington over trade and security. Financial markets, which rose during the campaign on the prospect of a business-friendly challenger, will be watching the runoff polls that both sides now distrust.
With the October 25 vote a little over two weeks away, the contest has become a contest of coalitions: Bolsonaro collecting endorsements from eliminated candidates, and Lula trying to turn incumbency into a majority. Neither man passed 50 percent when it first counted. One of them must do it when it counts most.
Brazil’s runoff rules leave no room for a plurality finish: the winner on October 25 must take a majority of valid votes, which is why the endorsements of eliminated candidates carry unusual weight in a race separated by less than two points. With a field of twelve first-round candidates now reduced to two, the campaigns have a little over two weeks to convert other parties’ voters while holding their own bases, in a country where voting is compulsory and turnout operations can decide close elections.
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